Upon Further Review: Redskins Cover 30-33!

Well that felt good; a great prediction (for once) by BadNFL. The Redskins came out determined; their offense looked great while the Saints looked flat, and the defense played well for extended stretches against Brees. But they still ended up losing. You have to feel sorry for the Redskins (I never thought I'd say that!). A fluky Saints' fumble return for a TD right off of a Redskins pick to close out the 1st half, and an inexplicable Suisham missed-FG from the 5 yardline with 2 minutes to go, and then a heartbreaking OT loss. Ouch. This was a game the Redskins should have won. But as they've been apt to do lately, they lost a game they should have won (while still covering).

I'm not sure if there are any lessons from this game, other than karma really seems to be on the Saints' side this year. While the Redskins strike me as a pretty solid team, they find ways to lose, and while they've been good bets to cover, I'm not sure how much longer they'll be able to keep fighting after suffering devastating losses week in and week out. But the larger lesson was that the BadNFL methodology was right on; the Saints really were due for a letdown after their emotional victory, and it showed, particularly early in the game. One thing to think about next time a situation like this (up and coming surprise team for the year, coming off an emotional home win against a traditional powerhouse, particularly on a short week, going out on the road to play a bad team) comes up: focus on the first-half line instead of the whole game. While the Redskins did ultimately cover the game line here, first half bets were able to reduce the amount of time Brees had to pull off the comeback.

But all in all, a very solid and well-reasoned prediction, if I do say so myself.

Update: BadNFL and the sharps think alike

According to Millman yesterday:

Same was true with the NFL's other undefeated team, the Saints. This was a classic sharp versus public matchup. All season, squares have been putting money on the Saints, ignoring the fact they've had a hard time covering against weak link teams. Meanwhile, the Redskins' D has made them a wise guy favorite this year (I've written that sentence about seven times since Thanksgiving) and they've covered the past several weeks. So, come Sunday, the books made bank from the loads of public money on the Saints, which far outweighed the sharp money won on the Redskins.

Too bad more of those squares don't read BadNFL; they would have known to steer clear of the Saints last weekend. Now if I can just break back over the .500 barrier and get a bonifide winning streak going! Upon Further Review coming later today, so stay tuned.

Week 13 Pick: Redskins +9.5 vs. Saints

Well I'm still in a foul mood from the Fins' unlikely melt down last week, and with law school exams approaching, there's nothing that could make me feel better than a nice stretch run here at BadNFL. So for the first time since my inaugural week 2, I'm taking an underdog. I know, my throngs of readers might think I'm crazy to pick against the undefeated Saints and their #1 ranked offense, so here are my reasons:

1. The Saints are due for a let down.

Everything about this game screams trap. As everyone in BadNFL Nation knows, New Orleans is coming off a emotional, statement win last week against the Pats on Monday Night Football. As a result, the media is now proclaiming them to have arrived, placing them unanimously at the top of power rankings, and proclaiming that Brees just played the best game in the history of the league. In other words, now seems like a perfect time for them to get complacent. History confirms this, as the Saints have a startling negative record ATS when they go out on the road after a big home win. Given the unique Katrina-infused emotion the Saints derive from their home crowd in the Superdome, and given the nearly perfect game they played last week, it's hard to see the Saints mustering up the emotion to play a team that most pundits wrote off a long time ago.

Two comparisons come to mind. One was this year, week 7: the Saints had just come off a statement win against the 5-0 (at the time) Giants, and they went out on the road to Miami. They proceeded to fall behind Miami 24-3 before mounting a furious comeback and ultimately winning by 12. True, this might not bode well for my pick, as a similar 12-point victory here would cover the spread. But for a number of reasons, I think this game is different. For one, the week 6 victory over the Giants simply cannot compare to the primetime domination over Belichick and Brady last week. Second, as those of you unfortunately enough to watch Miami/Buffalo last week can attest to, Miami is a truly horrendous 4th quarter team, and I frankly expect the Skins to play better. However, what won't change is the Saints' lackluster initial effort in this game.

The other example is a more salient one: in week 14 of 2006, the Brees/Peyton-led Saints played the Cowboys with first place in the NFC at stake, and the Saints totally demolished them on national TV. The next week, the NFC Championship Game-bound Saints lost to the 5-11 Redskins. While this Saints team is certainly better than that one, the exact same dynamics were at work: a letdown against a bad but tough Redskins team, after an emotional victory. While I'm not saying the Redskins will win this game, I do think the Saints' inevitable let down will keep it close enough for the Redskins to cover.

2. The Redskins match-up pretty well in this game.

Sharps love the Redskins, because they play solid defense. Their pass defense is particularly effective, good for tops in the league. Brees historically struggles against the Redskins, as his QB rating of 53.5 in his 3 career games against them is his lowest against any opponent. In addition, the Saints have lost 10 of their last 13 against the Redskins. This match-up just doesn't appear to be good for Brees and the Saints.

Finally, the weather in this game is an important factor. In his career, Brees is 0-5 with a passer rating below 80 in games that kickoff in temperatures of below 45 degrees. And you guessed it, the weather is projected to be below 45 this weekend, with the accumulation of over an inch of snow tonight. Given those conditions, I think the Redskins' solid pass defense will shut down Brees and the Saints' aerial attack.

Finally, the Redskins get Albert Haynesworth back this week. I think he'll do wonders to boost their pass rush and help stop up the middle. Given that the Redskins' offense has been improving lately, and that the Saints have a real possibility of letting down, this game should be close.

THE COUNTER-ARGUMENT: GREGG WILLIAMS WILL FIRE UP THE SAINTS?

Apparently, Saints DC Gregg Williams has a huge grudge against the Redskins stemming back from his time as DC there, and as such, will motivate the Saints to blow out the Redskins. Whatever. This is the type of speculation that it's very difficult to evaluate. Ultimately, every sign points to this being a trap game, and I don't think one assistant coach's pissing match with Redskins ownership will change that.

The real counter-argument is obviously that the Saints have the most explosive offense in the league and are much much better than the Redskins. That's true, and there's obviously a risk that the Saints, even if they play this close most of the way, open up a big enough lead at the very end to cover the spread. But talent alone does not win football games. The Saints are undoubtedly much better, but I don't love their match-up and they're due for a letdown. The Skins are getting a lot of points, and while I have been waiting for it to push up to +10 all week (and would obviously like it better there), +9.5 is still enough for me. Washington covers.

Upon Further Review: Fins Lose 14-31

I can't believe I'm writing this, when the team I picked lost by 17 points, but the Dolphins really should have won this game. The Dolphins were ahead in the 4th quarter, and they should have closed out an inferior opponent. They did not, as Henne collapsed and threw 3 consecutive INTs in the final 3 minutes of the game, turning a prospective Dolphins' victory into a Bills' blowout. Most of my predictions about this game came true: the Dolphins' ground game was solid, and the Fins' accrued 5 sacks and numerous QB hits and hurries, including 2.5 sacks from Joey Porter. So why did the Fins blow it?

1. Their inability to close out games. The Dolphins have been terrible in the 4th quarter this year, and that trend obviously continued on Sunday. Of course, so had the Bills, which was the main reason I wasn't worried about the Fins before this game. But the Bills managed to put together an impressive drive (replete with the requisite observation by the announcer, seemingly made in every game about the team that BadNFL picked against, that "this is the best the Bills have looked all season") that tied the game, and then new coach Percy Fewell made the gutsy (I thought ill-advised) decision to have Ryan Lindell attempt a 56-yard field goal to give the Bills the lead. If he had missed, and he missed earlier from 44 yards, the Dolphins would have been set up with great field position to take the lead. But like every other gamble Fewell made on Sunday, that one paid off. And Henne was clearly not up to the challenge of playing from behind on the road late in that situation--even though he led a similar drive on national TV against the Jets litttle over a month ago.

2. They got too cute on the goalline. With the score tied 0-0, early in the 1st quarter, the Dolphins had the chance to pound the ball in on the ground from inside the 5. And why wouldn't they, given that the Bills' run defense is horrendous? Instead, the Dolphins decided to attempt a Ricky Williams pass out of the wildcat, and he threw a devastating and ugly INT in the end zone. That swung the momentum for the whole game, and gave the Bills, who I didn't think had a lot to play for entering the game, new life.

LESSON LEARNED?

Be careful betting against new, young, energetic coaches who have replaced an tired and dour older coach. Pretty much every recap of this game mentions how energized the Bills are by new coach Percy Fewell. I thought that the swirling Shanahan rumors would undermine his credibility, but most reports have the players absolutely loving the coach and playing much harder for him. Particularly as contrasted to Dick Jauron, maybe he really is an effective coach for them. It's difficult to say, and I'm still surprised that this game didn't result in a decisive Dolphins' win, but in this case, it really appears that my "counterargument" that I discarded in my prediction came through and tanked the pick.

Week 12 Pick: Fins -3 @ Bills

Happy Thanksgiving! I hope everyone out there in BadNFL Nation has a good day having some turkey, watching some football, and settling in for this week's BadNFL pick. A reader was recently questioning why I gravitate towards favorites so often (8 of my 10 picks this year have been favorites), and I don't have a great answer; maybe it's a cognitive bias that leads the majority of the betting public to always pick heavy favorites. Regardless, this week I have good feeling about several underdogs (Texans +3.5 in particular) and a similar feeling about only one favorite. But even so, I'm picking that favorite, because I just like the Fins at the Bills too much to pass up. Here's why:

1. The Bills' miserable offensive line.

The Bills have the worst offensive line in the league. As I pointed out in my week 3 pick against the Bills, the Bills entered the year with the least collective experience--and arguably the least talent--of any offensive line this decade. The week that I made that observation, their terrible offensive line held true to form, turning in an abysmal performance while the Bills failed to cover. Incredibly, since then, the situation has deteriorated, as injuries have ravaged their bad starters and forced in their even worse backups. Given this mix of inexperience and instability along the line, I expect the Bills to have a miserable day on offense. The Fins have one of the best defensive fronts in football, and Joey Porter, Jason Taylor and company are likely to have a field day in the Bills' offensive backfield. And when they're not, look for the Bills' offensive line to commit a couple of drive-killing penalties, a stat in which they're worst in the league by far.

The failure of the offensive line should negate any positive momentum established by the Bills' offense, particularly given the pedestrian talent level at most offensive positions. In fact, most analysts have identified Joey Porter vs. the offensive line as the key match-up of this game, and for good reason: as the Giants demonstrated against Tom Brady in the Super Bowl two years ago, offensive line failures can negate even a potent offensive attack. And of course, potency the Bills' offense does not possess. Ryan Fitzpatrick entered last week with a career passer rating under 50, and his skill set is more suited for a backup than a starting role. True, the Bills' passing game, and T.O. in particular, was solid against the Jags last week. But I don't think that portends trouble for the Fins for two reasons. First, a good game by T.O., particularly on a dysfunctional team like the Bills, can spell doom for a young QB. Owens had a similar breakout game last year the week before Thanksgiving against the Giants, and it ultimately contributed to both the Cowboys' failure to make the playoffs and Owens' departure from Dallas: after that, Romo really locked on to T.O. and targeted him excessively. The Cowboys' offense wasn't the same for the rest of the year. And you can already see the signs of this in Buffalo, as T.O. has really upped his public griping lately. Thus, look for Fitzpatrick to force the ball into T.O. a few times, and for Sparano's Dolphins (Sparano coached T.O. in Dallas) to be ready for it.

Second, the Bills' performance last week against the Jags, which some are heralding as a fine performance and a sign of things to come, is not in and of itself very impressive. The Bills still lost to a Jaguars team that is not as good as its record suggests, and T.O.'s huge 98 yard pass play came against inexplicable 1 on 1 coverage by a rookie CB who said afterward that he spent the whole game in awe of Owens. Don't expect the well-coached Fins to make the same mistake. Moreover, the Jags feature an anemic pass rush that ranks dead last in the league in sacks. They are not the type of defense that can exploit the Bills' weakness up front. The Dolphins are.

2. The Dolphins should have success running the ball, enough to control the clock and generate a sizable margin of victory.

First, the stats: the Bills have the second worst rush defense in the NFL. The Dolphins have the 4th best rushing offense in the NFL. In fact, it was their first game against the Bills that really jumpstarted the Fins' strong rushing attack for the year, as Miami's 250 yards on the ground led them to a dominating 38-10 win. True, as you all know, Ronnie Brown is out for the year now. But Ricky Williams was superb last week in the Fins' gritty win last Thursday against the improving Panthers, and he has a history of success running against Buffalo. Moreover, the Fins should be rested after getting last weekend off, which is a good sign for their strong running game. Although the Bills may be getting DT Marcus Stroud back this week, he missed last week with a knee injury and if he plays it will likely be at a reduced level of effectiveness. In other words, I just don't expect them to stop the Dolphins' running game, and if they sell out to do so, the rapidly improving and surprisingly effective Chad Henne should be able to make them pay over the top. It's simply hard to see why this spread is so low given that the last time these teams played, Miami won by 28 points.

One possible explanation for the line is Miami's injuries. It's true that Miami suffered several injuries last week, including the potentially crippling loss of NT Jason Ferguson. But after the aforementioned long rest, the Fins will be returning a lot of their players this week. Moreover, I just have faith in the Sparano/Parcells regime's ability to replace players and not miss a beat. In fact, the Dolphins had to break in a lot of young players in their first game against the Bills this year, and they still dominated. This game is more about how terrible the Bills are than it is about the Dolphins being a juggernaut. And Joey Porter missed the first Fins-Bills match-up with an injury, but he won't miss this one. His pass rushing capabilities spells trouble for the Bills' pathetic protection schemes in the rematch. And that should set up Miami's ability to run the ball effectively and milk the clock. True, they'll miss Brown and Ferguson, but I think they'll still play well.

THE COUNTER-ARGUMENT: THE NEW COACHING REGIME HAS INSPIRED THE BILLS?

It's true that the Bills looked better last week in the first game of the post-Jauron era than they had previously in the season. But while I might normally be wary of this bet because of the new young energetic coach, the media circus surrounding the Bills' ongoing search for a new coach--particularly regarding Mike Shanahan--negates any such positive momentum. Almost all fo the stories this week relating to the Bills pertain to their next head coach, and as such, I can't imagine that interim coach Perry Fewell has much credibility in the locker room. The Bills' fans, and those who cover the team, are clearly thinking about next year. Conversely, the Dolphins are coming off a nice victory and in the thick of the playoff race, giving them plenty of motivation. Thus, the coaching change doesn't worry me too much.

In that light, this line seems way too low; 3 points is simply not enough to account for the differences in talent between these teams, particularly given the match-up. The Bills are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games, and I expect that trend to continue. Fins cover.

Upon Further Review: Colts Cover 17-15

Whew. Colts got BadNFL back to .500, but only barely, as they beat the Ravens 17-15, exceeding the 1.5 point spread by a mere half point. Here's how they did it:

The Ravens were pathetic in the red zone.

Sometimes, a game boils down to one simple stat: the Ravens only got 2 FGs out of their 4 trips inside the red zone. Responsible were a confluence of factors, chiefly that the Colts' defense stiffened in the red zone, making plays all game including a game sealing interception by Gary Brackett. But even more than the Colts' defense, which was solid--and has statistically climbed to become one of the elite defenses in the league--I thought the problem came down to poor decisionmaking by Joe Flacco. As I wrote in my prediction for this game, I've never been on the Flacco bandwagon, and he was quite pedestrian on Sunday. Part of it is certainly his woefully inadequate collection of pass catchers, but a major part of it was the sheer predictability of his reads. Breaking down the film on Flacco, it's obvious that he locks onto Ray Rice short over the middle when under pressure in the red zone, and on the crucial Brackett interception, the Ravens put three defenders on Rice and Flacco tried to force it into him anyway! That ended the game, and it was symptomatic of the Ravens' struggles of late; Flacco has now gone 3 straight games without a TD pass.

LESSONS LEARNED?

1. The Colts are barely winning right now. Many analysts thought that the Colts were generally outplayed in this game. Manning certainly wasn't happy with the way the offense played. His stats weren't pretty, the Colts had an uncharacteristic fumble inside the 10 yardline, and they never seemed to get in a rhythm the whole game. But somehow, as they've done all year, they squeaked out the win. In other words, I am really not confident in the Colts right now, and I could see their run coming to an end sooner rather than later.

2. The Ravens' special teams are a reason to hate them in close games. The one aspect of my prediction that I did get right was this: "Finally, in a close game, you have to trust the Colts to eek out the win, since the Ravens' kicking game has been an unmitigated disaster this year." That was borne out, as Billy Cundiff missed a huge FG that would have been the difference in the game. Moreover, the Ravens' lack of confidence in the kicking game, combined with their fear of giving the ball back to Manning with 2 minutes left, led them to call an aggressive pass play at the end of the game when they were already in field goal range. It's true that the Ravens still have a point differential that suggests they are one of the top teams in the NFL. But as I noted earlier after one of my picks premised on that exact logic fell through, the Ravens have been finding ways to lose close games, and their late game futility was on display Sunday. That's why, although this bet barely came through, I'll gladly take it.

Update: Recency Bias Influencing This pick?

ESPN's Chad Millman reports:

There is some recency bias at play, by bettors. Jay says: "This is actually a lot of public money right now, and I think the main reason for that is people bet what they last saw. The Colts had a dramatic finish and the Ravens had a dud offensive game. That's the driving force. If this number goes to 1.5, I can see sharps taking the Ravens because sharp money always favors defense.

It is true that the Ravens played a dud game last week against the Browns. Yet as I documented, their general ranking ticked upward after that game, while the Colts are still somewhat underrated as everyone obsesses about Belichick's bad decision instead of the Colts' miraculous comeback. Far from being infected by a recency bias, my assessment is colored by the Ravens' performance over the past 5 weeks, a span in which they've played only one good game, and that one coming off a bye against the freefalling Broncos. Finally, as I said earlier, the Ravens defense is simply not dominant, as they've allowed 21 points a game against teams with a .500 or better record.

It just seems to me that people who are picking the Ravens are trying to be too smart this week; a 9-0 team against a 5-4 team that's missing one of its best defensive players simply should not be this even.