So it's all come down to this: week 17, to determine if BadNFL can boast an above-.500 record in its inaugural season. The pressure's on, and its particularly intense because week 17 is notoriously the hardest week to bet on, because so many teams are resting for the playoffs, playing only for next year, etc. So while I'm not all that confident, my pick is for San Francisco to win big over St. Louis on the road. Here's why:
1. St. Louis is absolutely horrendous. They have the worst point differential in the league--a whopping -239, or an average of -16 per game! They've scored the fewest points in the league and allowed the second-most. Their offensive line is an injury-riddled and starved-for-talent nightmare, something that a talented 49ers front 7 should be able to exploit. Incredibly, only 15 of the 45 players the Rams dressed last week were picked in the first 5 rounds of the draft; the remaining 30 were sixth or seventh round picks, or undrafted. That's just not a lot of talent. Their only good player, RB Steven Jackson, is a gametime decision, and since the Rams sat him last week and are looking to next year, it's unlikely that he'll play. On the other hand, dynamic 49ers RB Frank Gore is healthy and running well. Given that the Rams were absolutely crushed by 35 points the first time they played the 49ers this season, it seems likely that a similar beatdown could take place this week. The 49ers are simply the more talented team.
2. The 49ers should be much more motivated this week. Let's face it, the Rams have nothing to play for, other than securing a high draft pick next year. It certainly seems conceivable that the Rams will give it less than full effort in order to protect their rights to the #1 pick. In fact, coach Spagnuolo is already planning to get his young players into the game to audition for next year. And even if they aren't consciously trying to tank for the number one pick, they have been so thoroughly demoralized and beaten this year that they appear to have nothing psychologically left in the tank. On the other hand, the 49ers have strong motivation to finish the year at 8-8, and coach Mike Singletary and QB Alex Smith in particularly are taking this game very seriously. They will in all likelihood play much harder than the Rams.
THE COUNTER-ARGUMENT: 49ERS HAVE BEEN TERRIBLE ON THE ROAD
It's true, the 49ers are 1-6 on the road this year. But the teams they've lost to--Colts, Eagles, Packers, Vikings, Texans--are all solid playoff-caliber teams. The Rams are anything but. I think they'll play this game more like they played the Lions last week, where, despite some 49ers miscues, they still won by 14. The defense has been playing with passion and aggressiveness, in the image of their head coach, and I think the road woes have been more the result of losing to quality opponents than any phobia of playing on the road. And St. Louis is not an intimidating environment; the biggest local storyline this week is Isaac Bruce's return to St. Louis, and I wouldn't be shocked if more fans cheer for him than for the pathetic local team. In other words, I think the 49ers won't miss a beat.
It's true that -7 isn't nothing, and some predictions have the 49ers winning by only 7. But others have it closer to a 10-point margin of victory, and I think it could be even higher. The Rams have made a habit of being blown out this year (they've already won BadNFL one pick), and they simply have no real incentive to play hard against a better team. Thus I like the 49ers to cover.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Upon Further Review: Chargers Dominate 42-17
San Diego has been good to BadNFL this month. Odds-makers continue to underestimate the Bolts in December, and for the second time in three weeks, BadNFL jumped on the chance to pick the Chargers as December underdogs. It worked again, as San Diego dominated the Titans, 42-17. I have to admit I'm somewhat surprised, as the Titans had been red hot and were playing at home on a non-traditional short week, something that is usually a big advantage. I figured that San Diego would win, but not by this much. Turns out they simply dominated the game, as Philip Rivers (a clear #2 in the MVP vote, at this point) put up huge vertical passing numbers through the first 3 quarters. As I've pointed out numerous times, the Titans are not a good come from behind team, and this game was essentially over at halftime. Why? The Chargers' passing offense was explosive, and predictably Tennessee could not stop it. But their defense was also surprisingly effective, and has been playing quite well of late. More than well enough to dispatch the Titans.
LESSONS LEARNED?
1. I love the Chargers in December. I will keep picking them automatically when they are December underdogs, as long as Philip Rivers and Norv Turner are running the show. The logic has simply not been proven wrong yet, as Rivers stretched his December streak to 17 wins in a row. And don't look now, but San Diego has covered 7 of their last 10 games. I think they're the best team in the NFL right now, and if the Colts are favored in a potential match-up in the AFC Championship game against the Bolts, I'm definitely going with the Bolts.
2. Top 5 passing offenses vs. bottom 5 passing defenses. I said this was one of my keys to watch for, as I think these type of situations lend themselves well to blowouts. So it was particularly easy to pick when the Chargers were underdogs.
3. The adjustment period: when the Chargers lost stud NT Jamal Williams for the year, I really thought they'd have difficulty adjusting, since the NT is arguably the most important component of the 3-4 defense. Well turns out I was both right and wrong. Right in that it took the Chargers, and particularly their defense, several weeks to get back on track. But wrong in that they now appear to be fully recovered. That's a pattern to watch out for next year: fade a team for the couple of weeks right after they lose an important but unheralded defensive cog, but be ready to jump back on the bandwagon after a few weeks' adjustment period. One interesting note: this strategy would have worked well with the Pats and Jerod Mayo earlier in the year.
4. Bonus Lesson Learned: While the Saints' loss to Tampa Bay this week may have been surprising to most, it shouldn't have been. The previous two times a team, previously undefeated through Thanksgiving, lost for the first time (the 2005 Colts and the 1998 Broncos) after Thanksgiving, they also lost the next week. The Saints now make three. In other words, next time a team is undefeated through Thanksgiving, watch for their first loss. And bet against them the following week. (Caveat: not sure this applies to the Colts and their weird decision to bench Manning et. al.).
LESSONS LEARNED?
1. I love the Chargers in December. I will keep picking them automatically when they are December underdogs, as long as Philip Rivers and Norv Turner are running the show. The logic has simply not been proven wrong yet, as Rivers stretched his December streak to 17 wins in a row. And don't look now, but San Diego has covered 7 of their last 10 games. I think they're the best team in the NFL right now, and if the Colts are favored in a potential match-up in the AFC Championship game against the Bolts, I'm definitely going with the Bolts.
2. Top 5 passing offenses vs. bottom 5 passing defenses. I said this was one of my keys to watch for, as I think these type of situations lend themselves well to blowouts. So it was particularly easy to pick when the Chargers were underdogs.
3. The adjustment period: when the Chargers lost stud NT Jamal Williams for the year, I really thought they'd have difficulty adjusting, since the NT is arguably the most important component of the 3-4 defense. Well turns out I was both right and wrong. Right in that it took the Chargers, and particularly their defense, several weeks to get back on track. But wrong in that they now appear to be fully recovered. That's a pattern to watch out for next year: fade a team for the couple of weeks right after they lose an important but unheralded defensive cog, but be ready to jump back on the bandwagon after a few weeks' adjustment period. One interesting note: this strategy would have worked well with the Pats and Jerod Mayo earlier in the year.
4. Bonus Lesson Learned: While the Saints' loss to Tampa Bay this week may have been surprising to most, it shouldn't have been. The previous two times a team, previously undefeated through Thanksgiving, lost for the first time (the 2005 Colts and the 1998 Broncos) after Thanksgiving, they also lost the next week. The Saints now make three. In other words, next time a team is undefeated through Thanksgiving, watch for their first loss. And bet against them the following week. (Caveat: not sure this applies to the Colts and their weird decision to bench Manning et. al.).
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Week 16 Pick: Chargers +3 @ Titans
Merry Christmas eve! I hope everyone out there is with family and friends, sitting by the fire, sipping some egg nog, and gearing up for this week's BadNFL prediction! With no further ado, I like the Chargers +3 at the Titans. Here's why:
1. Explosive passing offense vs. porous pass defense
There's no two ways about it, Philip Rivers is playing at an MVP level. Granted, he probably won't win it because of Peyton Manning's historic year, but Rivers has been absolutely lights out this year; he leads the league in yards/attempt, he's third in passer rating, and he has a knack for exploiting his array of matchup-nightmare weapons at the right time. And now he faces the Titans' pass defense, which ranks as the second-worst in the NFL. And as Scouts Inc's Jeremy Green points out, Rivers' specialty is the deep vertical passing attack, something that both BadNFL readers and those who watched the Pats/Titans beatdown in the snow realize that Tennessee struggles with. Moreover, Tennessee's defense is banged up, as they just lost 2 of their 3 starting LBs, including their best cover LB in Keith Bullock. That should spell serious trouble for their ability to contain dynamic Charger TE Antonio Gates, still perhaps the most difficult match-up in the league. In other words, I love the Chargers' chances of putting up tons of points through the air.
Because of that, and the Chargers' corresponding likelihood of jumping out and getting a lead--they've outscored teams 140-53 in the 1st half this year--they may be able to somewhat contain Chris Johnson. The Colts this year have provided a blueprint on how to accomplish that, and I think the Chargers might actually have some similar success. Strikingly, Johnson runs for fewer than 3 yards-per-carry in the 2nd half of games this year. In other words, if the Chargers manage to obtain a lead at some point during the game, the Titans are going to be in trouble. And as BadNFL's week 7 Lesson Learned this year argued, explosive passing attacks against bottom-ranked pass defenses are particularly good candidates to generate big leads early or midway through the game, and when the team that's down relies mainly on the run, they can get in trouble.
2. The Chargers love December.
As I pointed out a few weeks ago in the Lock Of The Year Chargers +3.5 pick against Dallas in December, Philip Rivers and Norv Turner love December. In fact, Norv as the coach of the Chargers is 12-0 in the month, while Philip Rivers is 16-0. That is pretty incredible. The Chargers are also on a 9-game winning streak and are playing absolutely lights out football. The way things go for them in this month, close games and lucky bounces will end up in their favor. And Tennessee, for all its recent VY-inspired success, is only 1-8 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. In fact, they've only played one team--the Colts--of San Diego's caliber since VY took over, and they lost handily. While I'm not confident enough to predict a similarly sizable Chargers win, as Peter King's 24-22 or Jeremy Green's 24-20 seem closer to the mark, it surprises me that the Chargers are getting 3 points, and thus even a narrow Titans victory is acceptable.
THE COUNTERARGUMENT: EAST COAST TRAVEL ON A SHORT WEEK
The Chargers are forced to travel 3 timezones on short rest, to play a team that has been at home for 3 straight weeks. This is a serious concern, as the last team faced with similar circumstances--the Giants traveling to Denver on Thanksgiving--played a terrible and lifeless game. This is undoubtedly the reason the line has moved so far in the Titans' direction, as wise guys famously love to fade West Coast teams who are traveling to the East Coast. But the Chargers have shown great tenacity on the road this season, going a remarkable 6-1 so far. They also successfully traveled 2 timezones east on short rest earlier this year, resulting in a line-shattering 37-7 mauling of the Chiefs. But most importantly, the Chargers despise the Titans as few teams do, as they still blame the Titans' dirty play for the 2007 season-ending injury to Shawn Merriman. As a result, you can expect the Chargers to be fired up and emotional, perhaps countering the ill effects of playing on the road at Christmas.
And remember, it's the Chargers in December, and they're playing on Christmas, the quintessentially December day. They should at a minimum be able to keep this close, and thus I like them to cover.
1. Explosive passing offense vs. porous pass defense
There's no two ways about it, Philip Rivers is playing at an MVP level. Granted, he probably won't win it because of Peyton Manning's historic year, but Rivers has been absolutely lights out this year; he leads the league in yards/attempt, he's third in passer rating, and he has a knack for exploiting his array of matchup-nightmare weapons at the right time. And now he faces the Titans' pass defense, which ranks as the second-worst in the NFL. And as Scouts Inc's Jeremy Green points out, Rivers' specialty is the deep vertical passing attack, something that both BadNFL readers and those who watched the Pats/Titans beatdown in the snow realize that Tennessee struggles with. Moreover, Tennessee's defense is banged up, as they just lost 2 of their 3 starting LBs, including their best cover LB in Keith Bullock. That should spell serious trouble for their ability to contain dynamic Charger TE Antonio Gates, still perhaps the most difficult match-up in the league. In other words, I love the Chargers' chances of putting up tons of points through the air.
Because of that, and the Chargers' corresponding likelihood of jumping out and getting a lead--they've outscored teams 140-53 in the 1st half this year--they may be able to somewhat contain Chris Johnson. The Colts this year have provided a blueprint on how to accomplish that, and I think the Chargers might actually have some similar success. Strikingly, Johnson runs for fewer than 3 yards-per-carry in the 2nd half of games this year. In other words, if the Chargers manage to obtain a lead at some point during the game, the Titans are going to be in trouble. And as BadNFL's week 7 Lesson Learned this year argued, explosive passing attacks against bottom-ranked pass defenses are particularly good candidates to generate big leads early or midway through the game, and when the team that's down relies mainly on the run, they can get in trouble.
2. The Chargers love December.
As I pointed out a few weeks ago in the Lock Of The Year Chargers +3.5 pick against Dallas in December, Philip Rivers and Norv Turner love December. In fact, Norv as the coach of the Chargers is 12-0 in the month, while Philip Rivers is 16-0. That is pretty incredible. The Chargers are also on a 9-game winning streak and are playing absolutely lights out football. The way things go for them in this month, close games and lucky bounces will end up in their favor. And Tennessee, for all its recent VY-inspired success, is only 1-8 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. In fact, they've only played one team--the Colts--of San Diego's caliber since VY took over, and they lost handily. While I'm not confident enough to predict a similarly sizable Chargers win, as Peter King's 24-22 or Jeremy Green's 24-20 seem closer to the mark, it surprises me that the Chargers are getting 3 points, and thus even a narrow Titans victory is acceptable.
THE COUNTERARGUMENT: EAST COAST TRAVEL ON A SHORT WEEK
The Chargers are forced to travel 3 timezones on short rest, to play a team that has been at home for 3 straight weeks. This is a serious concern, as the last team faced with similar circumstances--the Giants traveling to Denver on Thanksgiving--played a terrible and lifeless game. This is undoubtedly the reason the line has moved so far in the Titans' direction, as wise guys famously love to fade West Coast teams who are traveling to the East Coast. But the Chargers have shown great tenacity on the road this season, going a remarkable 6-1 so far. They also successfully traveled 2 timezones east on short rest earlier this year, resulting in a line-shattering 37-7 mauling of the Chiefs. But most importantly, the Chargers despise the Titans as few teams do, as they still blame the Titans' dirty play for the 2007 season-ending injury to Shawn Merriman. As a result, you can expect the Chargers to be fired up and emotional, perhaps countering the ill effects of playing on the road at Christmas.
And remember, it's the Chargers in December, and they're playing on Christmas, the quintessentially December day. They should at a minimum be able to keep this close, and thus I like them to cover.
Upon Further Review: Cards Win But Don't Cover, 31-24
This one was a bummer. The Cardinals jumped out to a 17-0 lead with relative ease, and looked poised to run it to 24-0, as they had the ball inside the 35 with 1:30 left in the 1st half. But some terrible clock management and a Warner sack/fumble snuffed out their drive, and from there the Cards went largely downhill. I thought that the Cards' underrated secondary would dominate Daunte Culpepper, and they largely did, as he went 6/12 with an INT. But the Lions were able to put up points in some unlikely ways, including a 101yard INT return and a 64 yard TD run by Maurice freaking Morris. The Cards managed to hold on, largely by relying on Beanie Wells and the ground game, but came up a TD short of covering the 13 point spread that I thought they'd cover.
LESSON LEARNED
Be very wary of huge double digit spreads when the underdog is missing a pair of higher-profile players (in this case starting QB Matthew Stafford and starting RB Kevin Jones). The temptation is just too strong for the favorite to lose focus and motivation, and that appears to be exactly what happened. With the Cardinals, a notoriously inconsistent and unpredictable team, that was probably too high of a risk to take, and BadNFL moves to 1-2 on the season when picking double digit favorites.
LESSON LEARNED
Be very wary of huge double digit spreads when the underdog is missing a pair of higher-profile players (in this case starting QB Matthew Stafford and starting RB Kevin Jones). The temptation is just too strong for the favorite to lose focus and motivation, and that appears to be exactly what happened. With the Cardinals, a notoriously inconsistent and unpredictable team, that was probably too high of a risk to take, and BadNFL moves to 1-2 on the season when picking double digit favorites.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Week 15 Pick: Cardinals -13 @ Lions
I'm going to have to beg your indulgence for another week, as I'm going to post my pick with minimal analysis. The pick is Cardinals -13 @ Lions. The week following losses, the Cardinals are undefeated, and in their two road games following losses, they won by an average of 17 points. The Lions are terrible, and will be starting Maurice Morris and Daunte Culpepper. This one has blowout written all over it.
I'll be back with my typical long researched posts next week!
I'll be back with my typical long researched posts next week!
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Upon Further Review: Chargers Win 20-17
Well that was easy. Not much to say here: the Cowboys found a way to lose, as usual in December. This week it was something old (another missed FG) and something new (inability to score the ball from the 1 yard line given 3 consecutive chances).
Romo managed to put up some nice meaningless yardage at the very end of the game, but couldn't convert when he had to. The defense held the Chargers to 20 points but couldn't get a stop when it mattered in the 4th quarter.
The difference in the game ended up being yet another missed FG by Nick Folk.
In other words: Cowboys in December baby. This was the easiest pick of the year.
Romo managed to put up some nice meaningless yardage at the very end of the game, but couldn't convert when he had to. The defense held the Chargers to 20 points but couldn't get a stop when it mattered in the 4th quarter.
The difference in the game ended up being yet another missed FG by Nick Folk.
In other words: Cowboys in December baby. This was the easiest pick of the year.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Week 14 Pick: Chargers +3.5 @ Cowboys
I know this pick is delayed, but I had an exceedingly annoying exam on Friday and also feel like I have swine flu. As such, I'm not going to gather all the links and write up the detailed analysis that I normally do this week. Not only am I not feeling up to it, but there's no reason to, as this pick is just too easy.
Philip Rivers is undefeated in December. Tony Romo and the Cowboys are anything but. Every year around this time, the Cowboys find ways to lose games that they should win. I thought maybe this year would be different and they'd snap out of it against the Giants, but after watching Brandon Jacobs lumber down the sideline for 70 yards and the Giants' middling return game generate its first punt return TD of the season to seal the win for the Giants, I realize I was wrong. Now they are playing a Chargers team that is not only better than them but always wins in December. This has led some analysts to write off the Cowboys in the division race, and I'm inclined to agree. Chargers simply should not be giving points in this game.
Philip Rivers is undefeated in December. Tony Romo and the Cowboys are anything but. Every year around this time, the Cowboys find ways to lose games that they should win. I thought maybe this year would be different and they'd snap out of it against the Giants, but after watching Brandon Jacobs lumber down the sideline for 70 yards and the Giants' middling return game generate its first punt return TD of the season to seal the win for the Giants, I realize I was wrong. Now they are playing a Chargers team that is not only better than them but always wins in December. This has led some analysts to write off the Cowboys in the division race, and I'm inclined to agree. Chargers simply should not be giving points in this game.
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