Sevransky says: "There are four factors in relation to this line move: The injury to Brian Westbrook, which is the primary reason. The second is, situationally, the Giants have lost two in a row, while Philly bounced back last week, and bettors feel this is a more important game for the Giants. Three is the classic: The team that plays on Monday night has less time to prepare. There is some thought out there that Philly didn't play that well last Monday despite the easy win and that the Eagles aren't that good. And four, in this series, there has been no home-field advantage."Hmm. Injury to Westbrook, the psychology of the Giants' bounce back, the Eagles' uneven and overrated performance last week, and the lack of a home-field advantage in this series? Sounds awfully familiar. The only factor I didn't mention was the Eagles' short week; however, I've yet to see any convincing statistics that suggests that the short week matters at all, and until I see some data on the subject, I'm hesitant to premise a bet on the somewhat intuitive yet absolutist and abstract theory that teams play worse after Monday night games. Still, the other factors identified above suggest to me that this is a sound bet, and evidence of the shift in the line described in this post further bolsters the argument.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Update: Do Vegas Insiders Read BadNFL?
Haha well unfortunately, the answer is undoubtedly a resounding no. But at least one sharp's reasoning is eerily reminiscent of BadNFL's arguments this week. As relayed through ESPN's indispensable Chad Millman, the line in the Eagles/Giants game has shifted from an opening line of Eagles -2 to the current line of Giants -1. Why has this line shifted so much, resulting in a rare change of the favorite? Millman's source explains: