Saturday, November 21, 2009

Update: Recency Bias Influencing This pick?

ESPN's Chad Millman reports:
There is some recency bias at play, by bettors. Jay says: "This is actually a lot of public money right now, and I think the main reason for that is people bet what they last saw. The Colts had a dramatic finish and the Ravens had a dud offensive game. That's the driving force. If this number goes to 1.5, I can see sharps taking the Ravens because sharp money always favors defense.
It is true that the Ravens played a dud game last week against the Browns. Yet as I documented, their general ranking ticked upward after that game, while the Colts are still somewhat underrated as everyone obsesses about Belichick's bad decision instead of the Colts' miraculous comeback. Far from being infected by a recency bias, my assessment is colored by the Ravens' performance over the past 5 weeks, a span in which they've played only one good game, and that one coming off a bye against the freefalling Broncos. Finally, as I said earlier, the Ravens defense is simply not dominant, as they've allowed 21 points a game against teams with a .500 or better record.

It just seems to me that people who are picking the Ravens are trying to be too smart this week; a 9-0 team against a 5-4 team that's missing one of its best defensive players simply should not be this even.

1 comment:

  1. You should be thankful for the Ravens not getting that extra 1/2 point.