Thursday, December 10, 2009

Upon Further Review: Redskins Cover 30-33!

Well that felt good; a great prediction (for once) by BadNFL. The Redskins came out determined; their offense looked great while the Saints looked flat, and the defense played well for extended stretches against Brees. But they still ended up losing. You have to feel sorry for the Redskins (I never thought I'd say that!). A fluky Saints' fumble return for a TD right off of a Redskins pick to close out the 1st half, and an inexplicable Suisham missed-FG from the 5 yardline with 2 minutes to go, and then a heartbreaking OT loss. Ouch. This was a game the Redskins should have won. But as they've been apt to do lately, they lost a game they should have won (while still covering).

I'm not sure if there are any lessons from this game, other than karma really seems to be on the Saints' side this year. While the Redskins strike me as a pretty solid team, they find ways to lose, and while they've been good bets to cover, I'm not sure how much longer they'll be able to keep fighting after suffering devastating losses week in and week out. But the larger lesson was that the BadNFL methodology was right on; the Saints really were due for a letdown after their emotional victory, and it showed, particularly early in the game. One thing to think about next time a situation like this (up and coming surprise team for the year, coming off an emotional home win against a traditional powerhouse, particularly on a short week, going out on the road to play a bad team) comes up: focus on the first-half line instead of the whole game. While the Redskins did ultimately cover the game line here, first half bets were able to reduce the amount of time Brees had to pull off the comeback.

But all in all, a very solid and well-reasoned prediction, if I do say so myself.

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