Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Week 6 Pick: Bears -6.5 vs. Seahawks

I despise Jay Cutler. But I'm going with him this week. I basically only have one reason: Seattle is atrocious on the road. Look at their point differentials: they're +32 at home and -34 on the road. This is also not just a 1-year anomaly, as they were just as putrid on the road last year. For those of you who have followed the BadNFL carnage this year, you'll remember week 1 and my underestimation of the Qwest Field advantage. The flip side of that advantage is that the Seahawks play without energy on the road, and they consequently tend to get spanked.

Cutler also seems good to go for this week, and despite the Bears' extraordinarily sloppy win over the Panthers last week, I think that Cutler will make them a lot better (I also think that his bad performance against the Giants can be attributed to the Giants' dominating D-line and Cutler's ongoing struggles at night). This is a day game, against a team that I continue to think is bad, playing at Soldier field. He'll be fine.

More importantly, I've been much impressed by the Bears' defense. Peppers is dominating, and the Seattle offensive line -- including Russell Okung playing his first full game in the NFL, coming off an ankle injury, will struggle. The Bears have shown a tendency to generate points off defense and special teams, eerily reminiscent of their 2006 season. I expect that trend to continue this week.

Yes, Cutler's Bears have not won many blowouts; their largest win, before last week's slopfest against Carolina, was by 7 over Dallas. But Seattle has made a habit of being blown out on the road. I thus think the Bears will cover this.


As I said last week, I'm going to pick a few more games, in abbreviated form, just for fun at the bottom of each post. I unsurprisingly started off terribly last week, going 1-4. This week, I like:
  • Falcons + 3 @ Eagles. Falcons are playing like the NFC's best team, and the Eagles have been quite inconsistent. I like the points here. 
  • Bucs +4.5 vs. Saints. I almost picked this game as my main pick -- the Saints are playing really bad football and Tampa Bay is young and energetic, and they're playing at home. Tampa Bay is certainly better than the Cardinals, to whom the Saints lost rather handily last week. I thought this game would be a pick 'em, so at +4.5, I love the Bucs. 
  • Colts -3 @ Redskins. You never pick against Peyton Manning in a night game. I'm sure that's what Simmons will write this week, and I subscribe to that theory. 
  • Chiefs +4.5 @ Texans. The Chiefs acquitted themselves well in a narrow loss against Indy last week, and I think we may be overrating the Texans based upon their admittedly impressive week 1 performance. But it's now week 6, and the Chiefs shouldn't be getting this many points. 
Only the Cowboys need a win more than BadNFL this week. LET'S GO BEARS!!


  1. Crap, now the Bears are going to lose this week. Thanks a bunch, Bizzle.

  2. This is really quite incredible - I wouldn't believe it if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes each week.

    Odds of picking the first six games wrong if you had just picked by flipping a coin: 1:64.

  3. Uh oh, the pick is usually out by Thursday - don't give up now, BadNFL! There are probably countless dozens of football bettors out there breathlessly waiting to see what team you will hex this week!