Week 13 Pick: Pats -3.5 vs. Jets

This is a tough week for picking games. Initially, I liked the Browns +5, but then remembered that Jake Delhomme was still starting. Eventually, I settled instead on the Patriots. Essentially, I think that the Pats played remarkably poorly in their first meeting against the Jets, and they'll be at home this time and seem likely to play much better. The Jets also have been on an incredibly lucky streak -- excepting last week's win over the terrible Bengals -- winning 3 in a row in games they should have lost. That luck will run out this week, I think. The fact that this game's in Foxboro, the loss of defensive stalwart Jim Leonhard, and the Patriots' motivation to extract revenge after Brady's abysmal performance last time out all portend a substantial Pats victory.

Of course, it's possible that I'm merely repeating a mistake I've already made once this season. I still like that Pats pick week 2, however, and think that a lot of the same logic will be borne out this week. The Jets are touting their lucky late game wins as a sign of destiny; I think that it's a sign that they're not quite as good as their record indicates. We'll see.