This post kicks off what I hope will be an entertaining and rewarding year of picking one NFL game every week against the spread. The plan is to post every Friday, using the line as of that morning as it appears on sportsbook.com. I also plan to post, early in the week, an analysis of why my prediction that week either did or did not pan out, including extensive breakdown of the film from the game and a comprehensive survey of opinions about the game from the news media and blogosphere.
I have no expectation that this blog will ever be read by more than 3 or 4 people, which will probably include only my dad and a couple of good buddies, if that. That is probably a good thing, since I have no real qualifications to be picking games; I am not a statistician, an ex-jock, nor someone that analyzes sports for a living. I am also a law student, and as such I don't have excess free time with which to put all of these games under a microscope. That being said, I have some interesting ideas about how to analyze football lines, I live and breathe all things NFL in the free time I do have, and I am hoping this blog will serve as a platform for me (and maybe some occasional guest posts from my similarly unqualified friends) to hone our techniques and fine-tune our football analysis skills. And of course it should be a lot of fun to document my picks throughout the season. And if by some miracle people do start reading this blog, I would invite you to agree or disagree with my picks, supporting your opinions with as much evidence as possible, in the comments.
I am also a huge Dallas Cowboys fan. I'm not sure if that means I will pick games involving the 'Boys more or less than I otherwise would; on the one hand, I know more about them than any other NFL team, but on the other, I may both be biased and risking bad karma by focusing on their point spreads. Time will tell.